Conflict Minerals, or the End of War?

“The value of the newly discovered mineral deposits dwarfs the size of Afghanistan’s existing war-bedraggled economy, which is based largely on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as aid from the United States and other industrialized countries… Meanwhile, charges of corruption and favoritism continue to plague the Karzai government, and Mr. Karzai seems increasingly embittered toward the White House. So the Obama administration is hungry for some positive news to come out of Afghanistan. Yet the American officials also recognize that the mineral discoveries will almost certainly have a double-edged impact. Instead of bringing peace, the newfound mineral wealth could lead the Taliban to battle even more fiercely to regain control of the country. The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth… Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts.” — New York Times, “U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan,” James Risen.

Today’s headline in the New York Times concerns minerals, lots of minerals. The U.S., in a mission to discover business opportunities in the war-torn country, discovered one trillion dollars worth of copper, lithium, gold, and iron spread across the territories of Afghanistan. The minerals had previously been discovered by geologists, but somehow had not been advertised as a possible business venture — strange, considering $1 trillion would do a lot to change a country which is largely dependent on foreign aid, trade, and agriculture.

I smell fish, and not simply in a conspiracy-theory kind of way, rather, in a this kind of thing rarely ends well kind of way. The U.S. may have been honestly scouting for business development opportunities within the country — it seems a logical venture,  to explore ways to create legitimate jobs and wealth for a country that has little supportive income not based in war and drugs. However, these particular mines were discovered two years ago, and are only now being looked into as a source for wealth. Why now? Is it because this mission for business exploration was only recently thought up, or is it actually because now is the most convenient time for this discovery? Two years ago, the U.S. deployed 4,500 additional troops for the war effort, and opium sales were at their highest ever. A year later, 17,000 more American troops were deployed, as well as a surge by other nations. The war was looking grim, and our faith in the country’s success was likely not very high. Did we decide, then, that it wasn’t the time for mining?

Now, the Pentagon has published the wealth of the mines to the world — in a perfect world Afghanistan would be able to sustainably develop these minerals and regain some independence. However, the placement of the minerals is ambiguous, leaving some very difficult questions to be answered — who will receive the money from the wealth? Will it be the government or will it be the locals? Will the Taliban strong arm its way back into the country — either bogging the U.S. further into war, or scaring us away — to take over such a powerful discovery?

These questions are the ones that lead to the ominous title “conflict minerals.” The Congo has Coltan, a conflict mineral used in electronics. Armed conflicts have waged over its wealth while people, mostly in the United States, continue to buy it and feed the fire. Will this happen in Afganistan? Introducing incredible amounts of wealth into an impoverished country often sparks “greed” (if you can call it that), and inspires desperate acts at securing the wealth for certain groups over others. This “business” discovery, will likely change the face of the war before it ever changes the economy of Afghanistan. According to experts, it will likely take ten years before the wealth of the minerals can reach its fullest profit potential. A lot can happen in ten years.

So, where is the fish smell coming from? I think its coming from the good old United States. Whatever happens next will be interesting. If conflict arises in Afghanistan over this wealth it will either give the United States a reason to stay in the country for much longer, or incite an offer to develop the mineral wealth ourselves and distribute it through our own means — we have the resources to develop the area sustainably, we have the knowledge of business, and the power to influence who bids for the product.

I honestly hope that none of this happens — I hope that an honest, environmentally friendly company which holds its laborers at highest value bids for the development of the land, creates a contract that spreads the wealth evenly to the people, and does not allow itself to be corrupted by the government. I hope that the Taliban is too afraid of this new wealth to interfere, and that the people are so instilled with hope and prospect that they take honest jobs working for the company, and share in the wealth without creating rebel groups. We’ll see what happens, I suppose.